Josh Wolfe (Lux Capital): Predictions on Emerging Technologies, AI, and the Future of VC
EP 115 of The Logan Bartlett Show: Untold stories from tech's inner circle
Josh Wolfe, co-founder and managing partner at Lux Capital, is a master at quickly understanding complex, emerging technologies. In our conversation, Josh shared how he identifies the next big thing, his contrarian views on nuclear energy, biotech, and robotics, as well as his thoughts on the state of the venture capital market today.
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✉️ Episode Memo
→ Obsessions Fuel Breakthroughs
Josh often dives deep into a particular technology for many weeks, even years, juggling 10-12 of these obsessions at once. For example, his decade-long focus on using technology to replicate and understand smells seemed fruitless for years until the right technological breakthrough occurred. When you believe something is inevitable but aren’t sure of the timeline, continuing to pursue an idea can eventually lead to big rewards when timing and technology align.
→ How Josh Masters New Domains
Josh dives deep into scientific research (not just page one) to quickly become knowledgeable in new fields, and he connects with top scientists to learn about breakthroughs before they’re public. By the time he talks to experts, he’s already well-informed, allowing him to spot trends early and make investment decisions off the beaten path. For example, when the venture world was fixated on solar, wind, and biofuels, Josh turned his attention to his well-informed thesis on nuclear energy.
→ De-Risking Investments to Maximize Returns
Josh Wolfe emphasizes the importance of de-risking early investments by identifying key risks to the business and providing resources to mitigate them. Later investors will then be willing to pay a higher price because they face less uncertainty. His approach is not about being contrarian for its own sake, but about being ahead of the curve (much like moving to Brooklyn before it became mainstream). You want others to agree with you, just later.
→ Josh’s Harsh Take on the Future of VC
Josh predicts that 30-50% of venture firms may not survive the next few years, particularly those that are unable to adapt to changing market dynamics. Josh believes the firms that will thrive are those that can be nimble, make smart capital allocations, and avoid the pitfalls that come from following the herd in overhyped sectors.
⭐ Trailer
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