The Tariff Trap, Self-Inflicted Recession Risk, and Open AI’s Fundraise
EP 136 of The Logan Bartlett Show: For people building companies - from the people who’ve done it.
Since yesterday was Liberation Day, Zach Weinberg and I dove into a freeform conversation on two massive storylines in tech and policy: the return of tariffs and the implications of OpenAI’s $40B fundraise.
Click here to view the episode transcript | Watch on Youtube | Listen on Spotify or Apple Podcasts
✉️ Episode Memo
➡️ The 4 core arguments we’re seeing for tariffs & the nuance around each
National security: certain products like military equipment, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals are often seen as risky to outsource
Counteracting unfair trade practices from other nations
Negotiation leverage
Boosting domestic employment: Zach argues this is flawed because the U.S. can't manufacture goods as cheaply, and making things domestically leads to higher consumer prices and reduces global competitiveness)
➡️ Historical impact of tariffs & what economists are saying
Across multiple surveys, 85–95% of economists are saying tariffs are a bad idea. Historically, the narrative around tariffs has repeated itself multiple times in U.S. history, and each time it’s ended the same way: as a net negative for both average Americans and the political party in power.
➡️ It's not just high prices that trigger a recession—it’s the fear of them.
As tariffs come into play, the anticipation of higher prices causes consumers to slam the brakes on spending. People plan to stock up now and stop once prices rise—leading them to budget more cautiously, delay purchases, and avoid investing due to uncertainty. That pullback can ripple across the economy and shrink growth.
➡️ The OpenAI $40B fundraise. A few dynamics are worth watching as the AI arms race continues:
- CapEx intensity: Foundational model margins aren’t as strong as SaaS, and OpenAI is competing with some of the biggest balance sheets in the world.
- Price erosion risk: Companies like Google can offer similar capabilities for free and monetize through ads. Will this challenge OpenAI’s $20/month subscription model?
- Power of defaults: As AI features become native to devices, ease of access may drive consumer stickiness and long-term behavior.
⭐ Trailer
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